Quantum computing is coming! What do business leaders need to know? Well, you have nothing to worry about unless your business relies on cybersecurity in any way. In that case, yes, there are very real concerns. OK, that was a trick question. I’ll get to the cybersecurity implications further below! But first I wanted to talk a little bit about how cool quantum computing is.
(Spoiler, just to get this out of the way: practical, real-world benefits – and dangers – of quantum computing are at least several years away, and for some applications, decades. But we do need to be planning today for the anticipated cybersecurity dangers.)
A QUICK PRIMER ON QUANTUM COMPUTING
Instead of using bits – which are represented in “classical computing” by tiny little transistors or on-off switches – a quantum computer uses qubits. Processing information in a qubit relies on manipulating and observing the properties – or “quantum states” – of sets of subatomic particles.
In classical computing, a bit is binary. That means it can be in only one of two states: 0 or 1. By contrast, a qubit can exist in an infinite number of possible states between 0 and 1, and it’s this property that quantum computers will exploit to allow a degree of parallel processing that will increase computing speeds to almost unimaginable levels of millions or even billions of times faster (theoretically) than classical computers. For certain types of tasks.
The even more fascinating part is, these subatomic particles appear to violate conventional physical laws! For example, the particles have a property called “entanglement” that is key to quantum computing. Entanglement is a phenomenon that connects the state of two or more particles in a way that makes them behave as a single object. Meaning, you can know the state of particle #2 just by observing particle #1, or vice versa, and this is always true even when the particles are separated by a great distance.
Also, a particle can exist in multiple states at once, until its state is measured, at which point it “collapses” into a single state. (Remember Schrödinger’s cat?) And the very act of measuring particle #1 instantaneously causes the outcome to be reflected in particle #2, no matter how far apart they are physically. This behavior suggests faster-than-light communication – considered impossible in conventional physics – and calls into question our very understanding of distance and time!
This confused even Einstein, so don’t feel bad. Einstein theorized that there must be hidden variables within each entangled particle, so that each particle contains the full information about its state and the other particle’s state, and therefore no “communication” is necessary. But this theory was later disproved.
(There’s a lot more to this, of course, but suffice to say quantum physics cannot be explained by conventional physics.)
WHY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF QUANTUM COMPUTERS SO SLOW AND DIFFICULT?
It’s mainly due to the difficulty in getting small sets of subatomic particles perfectly isolated, so they are not affected by their environment yet can still be reliably manipulated and observed. And then, to scale a quantum computer by “chaining” qubits together just multiplies the challenges inherent with these fragile particle sets.
SO ONCE WE HAVE USEFUL QUANTUM COMPUTERS, WHAT WILL THEY BE USED FOR?
As an emerging technology, quantum is a bit like blockchain in that it’ll be sort of a precision instrument for targeted uses, not suitable for all computing scenarios. But in the areas where it excels, it will really excel.
In a nutshell, conventional (“classical”) computers will still be more efficient and cost-effective for everyday tasks like, well, most of what you do on your laptop – running browsers, documents, spreadsheets, audio, video, storage, retrieval, etc.
Where will quantum excel? It’s going to find a home with tasks that involve massive parallel processing of complex calculations, or huge numbers of iterations or possibilities, but that are also relatively simple to define and input (due to the complexity of feeding instructions to quantum computers). Some examples:
- Simulating molecular interactions for drug discovery
- Cryptography (both breaking conventional encryption and leveraging quantum encryption)
- Financial modeling
- Process optimization (logistics, traffic, manufacturing, etc.)
- Material design
- Solving complex linear equations
- Factoring large numbers
HOW ADVANCED ARE QUANTUM COMPUTING CAPABILITIES TODAY?
The largest quantum computers in existence today contain a little over 1000 qubits. But at this size, they are still mainly used for research and development. They’re not yet capable of the large-scale, fault-tolerant computations required to solve complex real-world problems.
Also, the large cloud providers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) are already offering quantum computing “as a service”, but again, development is still in very early stages and the uses are still mostly experimental. Practical, reliable, cost-effective usage is not imminent.
Routine use of quantum computing for drug development, for example, is considered to be at least 10 years out. But eventually, businesses in certain fields – like biotech, pharma, chemistry, physics, materials science, and finance – will be able to build entire value propositions around it.
WHAT ABOUT USING QUANTUM WITH ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE?
I know that’s what you’re thinking. AI is already taking over our lives – what’s stopping “quantum AI” from basically taking over the universe?
The answer, I think, is only time.
Quantum neural networks (QNN’s) are already under development, although (again) still in very early stages. As this technology matures, at least at the beginning, quantum AI is likely to exist in a hybrid configuration where a quantum computer optimizes specific layers of a neural network, while the rest of the network is processed on classical computers.
But, in summary, yes. It’s easy to imagine a state in the more distant future where fully realized QNN’s enable AI capabilities that far exceed today’s.
YOU MENTIONED CERTAIN CYBERSECURITY IMPLICATIONS?
Yes. You’ll hear the term “Q-Day” tossed around. This is the theoretical day in the medium-future when quantum computing renders many of today’s common encryption methods obsolete by being able to defeat their cryptographic algorithms in less than 24 hours. Some experts estimate that “Q-Day” will arrive within 5-10 years.
But even if the technology takes a while, your data could be subject to a “steal now, decrypt later” vulnerability. This highlights the importance of having “post-quantum cryptography” (PQC) methods in place before the available technology requires them.
NIST has been actively developing and releasing standards for post-quantum cryptography. Though the threat is still several years out, every business should begin tracking this as a business risk and planning their migration to PQC. For small companies, this may entail confirming that your systems and service vendors are migrating to the new encryption algorithms, and testing and deploying system upgrades as they become available. Many commercial products already support PQC (Google Chrome, for example).
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Well, I’ll leave it at that! And finally, this is the part where I remind you I can help your small business strategize on how best to leverage emerging technologies!
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